2010 Predictions and Hopes
I think 2010 will be a memorable year for MMOs, but more like the equivalent of 78 A.D. in Pompeii. We bloggers will have a nice year of navel gazing and pontificating, but after that, buckle up.
– Guilds (I use “guild” as the catchall for any social network, like alliance, clan, corporation, etc) will finally get recognized as something more than a place to raid, and a place to chat. There are just too many that do not fit that description, and have been around for longer than many currently released MMOs. The people in these guilds transcend the games they play, and they need to be given much more attention than they have been. I’d like to see more cooperative, multiplayer content that doesn’t consist of “everyone stab this boss and follow the script.” And give guilds more tools to be the “onramp to socialization.” Let guilds help new players catch up to the veteran playerbase, give them meaningful incentives to teach new players, and reward them for getting players to stick with a game over the long term.
– Going along with that, all those players who bemoan guilds during their regular group nights with friends will have an epiphany and finally accept that, yes, they are guilds too. Games and players both haven’t yet caught up to guild evolution. I predict that I will be writing about this quite a bit in 2010…
Above: No, guilds do not have to be a militaristic organization with a tyrannical guild leader who eats your dkp for lunch and forbids you from leaving your chair during a 12 hour gaming session. I can still dream though, can’t I?!
– 38 Studios will give us more about “Copernicus,” which isn’t asking much, since we pretty much just have 5 concept art pictures. We’ll also begin to see some of the out-of-game items that will tie in with their MMO, like comic books, print stories, and painted collectibles. In addition, they’ll contact me about working for them, because I’m a stone’s throw away from their Maynard office, and I’ll work for free.
– Brad McQuaid will finish his retrospective on why Vanguard failed. And shortly after, Vanguard will shut down.
– Star Trek Online will launch this year. And it will also shut down this year.
– Bioware will reveal more about the multiplayer gameplay of Star Wars: The Old Republic, and beta will create quite a buzz, but the game will not launch this year.
– NC Soft will throw up its hands on the Western Market, and will close all North American offices.
– Lego Universe will have a hugely successful launch and will bring in tons of new players to the MMO genre. We might not see it immediately, but this game will out do WoW. Yes, I’m dubbing it a WoW killer. It will redefine how we view MMOs, giving us a simple but catchy overarching storyline, some fresh “class” choices, and (finally) a real purpose to player created content. Plus, no elves! Heck, you can even designate some of your creations “smashable.” Seige warfare anyone?! Waagh!
– Veteran bloggers will flippantly dismiss Lego Universe, and will continue to insist that the game is no good, despite the fact that it’s a huge hit with millions. The Brittany Spears music analogy will also be tossed around a few times too.
– Someone will ask the question, “why was Raph Koster politely given a pass on Metaplace, while Brad McQuaid continues to be everyone’s MMO uber villain?”
– Some game developer studio will announce plans for a historical-based MMO, a genre that is rich with content and has not really been explored by MMO developers as a possible game setting. Imagine a historically accurate MMO about Ancient Egypt or the Crusades. Or better yet, time travel! The expansions are endless…
– Eve will have 5 c-f scandals, but this year might be the final straw for the “foundation” guilds that make Eve what it is. Frustration factor, along with several new competing titles, might create a brain drain among the Eve elite. I keep comparing Eve to EQ, and at the risk of complete blog exile, I would compare Eve’s 2010 to EQ’s 2004.
That’s it for my predictions. I’m not including anything about WoW, because there’s really nothing to predict. Not a whole lot of cheer in my post, unless you like Brittany Spears or McDonalds. Go Legos!
Posted by jayernh under Uncategorized | Comments (8)
I hope YOUR hopes about guilds come true, Jaye. I think a more social bent would definitely breath some much-needed life into MMO’s. I mean, isn’t everyone tired of the “my shiny is bigger than your shiny” competitive resource gatherer aspect of gaming yet?
I still have dim dreams of the RPG aspects of multiplayer gaming taking on a larger role in games to come, but admittedly, I feel like a delusional dinosaur for harboring such thoughts.
Can’t say I’m looking forward to any of the Star Wars/Trek/superhero MMOs on the horizon. My fingers are still crossed that 38 Studios will give us something interesting and hopefully 2010 gives us a tease of what’s to come.
Comment by tenfoldhate — January 12, 2010 @ 1:43 pm
You live near 38 Studios? I just moved from Littleton to Framingham. Small world. I was also almost a QA for Turbine back in the day.
I hope the Lego MMO works out, just such a cool setting. Hopefully it’s not something ‘kids only’ like FR too, but something like Second Life with more ‘game’ in it.
Comment by SynCaine — January 12, 2010 @ 2:38 pm
[...] Of course, other people are putting out their predictions for next year, so I am putting this sentence in as a place to link to them as their posts show up. [...]
Pingback by 2010 MMORPG Progdictionations « The Ancient Gaming Noob — January 12, 2010 @ 2:49 pm
I don’t see Star Trek shutting down at all this year or anytime soon really. Just from everything I have seen and experienced on my own the game certainly isn’t perfect but it is good enough to point it in the right direction at launch.
Comment by Mark — January 12, 2010 @ 4:23 pm
Yep, I’m in Franklin. Used to live in Framingham though, long ago. Rented in that huge Rt 9 apartment area for a couple of years after college. Fun area, lots to do!
Comment by jayernh — January 12, 2010 @ 5:37 pm
Nice predictions Jaye. I don’t know why, but I’m getting the same vibe from Star Trek Online as well. The game seems extremely rushed, and I’ve had to deal with enough developers asking me for my money and time so they can implement features that should have been in a game since launch.
Comment by Garen — January 14, 2010 @ 2:24 pm
Garen, I love the blog! Keep writing please. You remind me of why I originally started my blog, and why I need to go back to my roots.
Comment by jayernh — January 14, 2010 @ 10:56 pm
Jaye, I hope you’re wrong about your predicitons concerning Vanguard. I can’t say that I disagree with you though. If you’re correct, I think that certain people should definitely be held accountable. First and formost would be SOE for the way that they got in the way of the Vanguard’s success. Live gamer really took it’s toll on the game’s player base. Furthermore, there was zero $ allocated to promote the game that I know of. That is really what this game needed to get a nice push. The perfect time for this would have been after the recent Pantheon update. The rest of the blame should be laid at the feet of Silius for some very poor decisions. Although he made many positive contributions to the game, he made a lot of big time blunders that really hurt the game. It seemed like every time they made some great decisions to help the game along, they would inevitably shoot themselves in the foot by pissing off the player base. Number one on my list would be delivering what was promised.
Anyway, my hopes of Vanguard ever becoming successful are shot. For now, I cannot think of any game that I’d rather be playing despite everything that has happened. There isn’t a game quite like Vanguard and the day that it dies, people should be in mourning, not dancing on it’s grave.
To me and many, many people this game was supposed to be EQ on steriods and in many ways it lived up to it’s expectations. The sad thing for me is that while SOE kept the game going, they haven’t really given it a chance to thrive. What I would like to know is why.
Comment by Fellmage — January 18, 2010 @ 2:58 pm