Journeys with Jaye

Predictions – 2008

Everyone’s doing it, so I figured I’d give it a go too. I can’t wait till I see how right I am at the end of the year. (And if I’m wrong, it’s only one click to delete and rewrite history anyway, so I figure this is a win-win situation).

Here we go!

Nothing will put a significant dent in WoW. We need at least another year before that is a possibility. (But it will happen!)

Pirates will struggle. The whole Pirate theme is niche as it is, and to rise above it, you need something more than this game has. The fans that do play it, however, will be content with what it is.

Age of Conan will struggle. I think it ran into the same problem as Vanguard, in that it tried too much with the combat system and had to pull it back a ton. Now they are scrambling to make up for lost time, and it will cost them.

Warhammer will be the Lord of the Rings Online of 2008. Numbers will be ok, but no one will be running around saying it’s the second coming of WoW, even though it bears quite a resemblence.

Both of these games are headliners in what I consider a transition phase in the MMO timeline. Right now, we’re seeing the last wave of games that try to push the envelope, but really don’t stray that far from the classic MMO model when push comes to shove. Both AoC and Warhammer pushed their release dates back, and it’s obvious that they did it because of Vanguard. But both are too far along in production to really have a chance to capitalize on Vanguard’s mistakes. The next cycle of games, which we won’t see go live for another 3-5 years, will be the first generation of games to have had ample time to learn from the “Vanguard Saga.”

WoW’s expansion will do fine. Despite people wishing, hoping, and praying for it to flop, it will still be a huge hit. The thing about WoW is that nine freakin million people play it. So it can lose a million subscriptions (which is more than the total for almost every other game out there) and still do fine. Get used to it. It’s at about the Luclin phase in EQ dog years, so it has at least another two expansions before it has to worry about people jumping ship and not coming back.

The Agency will be hit. It’s a dark horse, and not the typical genre for an MMO, but it will offer something fresh to the grizzled gamer. It will bring back that feeling of “where is this headed?” And it won’t take itself too seriously. That’s huge, and I still contend that one reason WoW is such a hit is because it embraces current culture and pop references, rather than shun them like the typical fantasy MMO does. I think they will also set some standards for what is accepted in the sphere of microtransactions.

Predictions for current games:

Eve will have yet another colossal, c-f, scandal, and no one will mind.

Vanguard will start to see increased numbers – but only if they double their staff in the first quarter. They have too much to do still, and people wont’ be patient enough to wait with all the new games coming out. Actually, never mind. After seeing this post today, and then stumbling on this one, it’s clear to me that it’s not so much a question of having the manpower to turn it around, so much as it’s a question of it even being physically possible to turn around. That’s a whole other entry though!

Everquest 2 will continue to be the game that implements innovative features, lots of lore, and a fun atmosphere. People will write about how great the game is. And it still won’t see a signifcant blip in subscription numbers.

Tabula Rasa will fade, although you won’t see nearly as many tell-all posts about Richard Garriott that you did about Brad McQuaid this past year. People will start to look elsewhere for their vision though, and the big names of the MMO industry are going to start hearing footsteps from some fresh new faces.

38 Studios will start to come out with some specifics about “Copernicus.” This will generate a lot of buzz, but it will polarize the gaming community. People will either love it or hate it, but everyone who follows games will have a strong opinion about it for sure. Oh, and Scott Hartsman will end up working here. (It’s a stretch, I know.)

Star Trek Online will go the way of Gods and Heroes. (Hey, I need at least one slam dunk in here!)

*edit* Ok, this one probably won’t count, because the news about STO came out today. But I swear I wrote this last night, before anything was made public. Damn my hesitation!

There will be the same general malaise about 2008 as there was in 2007. American MMO commentators will bemoan the fact that there are too many “little” titles, and that not one of them is a real contender to dethrone WoW. And all the while, there will be at least 1 or 2 Asian games that come out and generate more subscriptions numbers than all the American MMO releases combined. That will lead to companies, like SoE, to start planning MMOs around the global market even more than they are now.

Yikes. Not a good year coming up, according to my little prophecy. Most of this is of little consequence to me, personally. I’m having fun right now in Everquest 2, and there’s plenty of stuff I look forward to seeing with my guildmates. People can complain about a lot of things in the MMO world right now, but you can’t complain about lack of choices. There is something for everyone out there, and it doesn’t matter whether 9 million people play your game, or 25k people play your game, as long as the game is fun (and is able to sustain itself with revenue of course).

Posted by jayernh under Archive | Comments (1)